Key points:
High Bitcoin ETF inflows don't always signal a price top as historical data is mixed.
Spot Bitcoin inflows often precede short-term price rises, not reversals.
Bitcoin may hit $100K but faces resistance.
Bitcoin’s (
Bitcoin has displayed bullish momentum after recovering from its multimonth lows of $74,400. BTC is up 8% over the last seven days, as per data from
Bitcoin’s recovery was fueled by high investor appetite for spot ETFs, which
Evidence of whether the high spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows could signal that the price is getting close to a local top could be determined by analyzing historical data.
While there have been instances where significant inflows coincided with or preceded Bitcoin price peaks, this has not always been the case.
The chart above shows that in March 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record inflows of over $1 billion on March 12, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone receiving $849 million.
This preceded Bitcoin’s new all-time high of around $73,300, suggesting a potential top signal. Similarly, on June 3, 2024, daily inflows hit $917 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s rally from $67,000 to $72,000, followed by a 25% correction to $53,000. These cases support the idea of major inflows preceding local tops.
However, in November 2024, weekly inflows hit $3.38 billion, as Bitcoin hit one all-time high after another, but this did not immediately lead to a price top. Instead, BTC showed resilience
Using a Vector Autoregression model, market analytics resource FalconX
Related:
Bitcoin’s 27% rally from the $74,400 range low saw it flip key levels into support, including the 50-day ($85,100), 100-day ($90,570), and 200-day ($89,300) simple moving averages (SMA).
Bitcoin was still consolidating under the resistance at $95,000 as observed by popular analyst AlphaBTC.
“The pink box [at the $95,000 level] has held $BTC’s price for the last few days, as expected,” AlphaBTC
Cointelegraph earlier reported that the $95,000 level marks the
AlphaBTC added:
“I think we push to 100K, but then likely see a bigger pullback.”
Data from monitoring resource
This suggests that Bitcoin’s price might rise further to take the liquidity at $100,000 before staging a pullback.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators,
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.