Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Reasserts Itself as Stocks, Bonds Fall, Gold Hits Record High
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
Few quotes better capture the current turbulence in global markets. For decades, the classic portfolio of 60% equities and 40% bonds was considered the cornerstone of balanced investing. This allocation typically offered protection in downturns through bonds, while equities drove returns in times of economic growth.
We saw this play out during crises like 2008 and 2020, when iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) surged amid global uncertainty. Today, that dynamic has been upended. With persistent geopolitical tension ignited by President Donald Trump's tariffs, stubborn inflation and slowing growth, Treasury yields have climbed and bond prices fallen. TLT is now down some 50% from its 2020 highs.
The equity side of the portfolio isn’t faring much better. U.S. stocks are underperforming, caught in what some are calling a broader "" trade. Even the dollar, which typically strengthens in risk-off environments, is weakening as capital flows shift toward the yen and euro.
In this new regime, alternative assets are taking center stage. Gold has surged to $3,500 an ounce for the first time, cementing its role as a haven. To underscore its meteoric rise: the precious metal has added about $6 trillion in market cap this year, triple the market cap of bitcoin (BTC) at its all-time high. Gold ETF inflows, measured over a 90-day rolling period, are approaching , the biggest surge since 2022 and among the largest in the past decade.
Bitcoin, while lagging behind gold, is also reasserting itself. It has reached new highs in the crypto market and is from U.S. tech stocks. It’s increasingly behaving like an uncorrelated asset, valuable in a diversified portfolio. This Friday, $6.7 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire, including $330 million in call options at the $100,000 strike price, setting the stage for a potentially volatile final week of April. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 22: The goes live on the Injective (INJ) mainnet.
April 25, 1 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Task Force Roundtable on "".
April 28: Enjin Relaychain to 25 from 15, to enhance decentralization.
April 29, 1:05 a.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — .
April 30, 9:30 a.m.: ProShares expects its , offering exposure through futures and swap agreements, to begin trading on NYSE Arca.
April 30, 10:03 a.m.: Gnosis Chain (GNO), an Ethereum sister chain, will the Pectra hard fork on its mainnet at slot 21,405,696, epoch 1,337,856.
Macro
Day 2 of 6: World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington.
April 22, 8:30 p.m.: Statistics Canada releases March producer price inflation data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
PPI YoY Prev. 4.9%
April 22, 6 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will deliver a speech titled "Transmission of Monetary Policy."
April 23, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.
Retail Sales MoM Prev. 0.6%
Retail Sales YoY Prev. 2.7%
April 23, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) U.S. April purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
Composite PMI Prev. 53.5
Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.4 vs. Prev. 50.2
Services PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 54.4
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
April 22: Tesla (), post-market
April 30: Robinhood Markets (), post-market
May 1: Block (), post-market
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave DAO is discussing to create a custom Aave market on EVM layer 2 to “facilitate on-chain credit for everyday payments through the Cash credit card program.”
April 23, 9 p.m.: Manta Network to host a t
April 24, 8 a.m.: Alchemy Pay to host an session on its 2025 roadmap.
April 30, 12 p.m.: Helium to host a
Unlocks
April 30: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $21.83 million.
May 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.28% of its circulating supply worth $170.93 million.
May 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.46 million.
May 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.73% of its circulating supply worth $11.92 million.
May 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.56% of its circulating supply worth $13 million.
May 9: Movement (MOVA) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $11.23 million.
Token Launches
April 22: Hyperlane to
April 22: BNB to be listed on Kraken.
April 23: Zora to airdrop its ZORA tokens.
April 24: Initia (INIT) to be listed on Binance, CoinW, WEEX, KuCoin, MEXC, and others.
Conferences:
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in . Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
Day 1 of 3: (Bangkok)
April 23: (Dubai)
April 23-24: (Moscow)
April 24: Bitwise's (New York)
April 26: (Manilla)
April 26-27: (Cambridge, Mass.)
April 27: (Kyiv)
April 27-30:
April 28-29: (Dubai)
April 28-29:
April 29: (San Salvador)
April 29: (London)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Pope Francis' death on Easter Monday triggered significant activity in crypto markets and prediction platforms as traders aimed to capitalize on the news.
LUCE, a Solana-based memecoin tied to the Vatican's Holy Year 2025 mascot, surged 45% in value, reaching $0.013, according to CoinGecko data.
Daily trading volume in the token skyrocketed to $60.27 million from $5 million the previous day, despite the price being down 95% from its November peak of 30 cents.
Although unaffiliated with the Vatican, LUCE has attracted around 44,800 holders.
Meanwhile, a Polymarket bet on who will be the next pope has attracted over $3.5 million in volumes since going live on Dec. 31, with over 18 candidates in the mix.
As of Tuesday morning, Pietro Parolin leads odds at 37%, followed by Luis Antonio Tagle at 23% and Matteo Zuppi at 11%.
Derivatives Positioning
HBAR, XLM and TRX have seen the most growth in perpetual futures open interest among major tokens in the past 24 hours. However, only TRX has seen a positive cumulative volume delta, implying an influx of new money predominantly on the bullish side.
BTC's open interest in has increased to 695K BTC, the most since March 25. ETH's open interest held shy of the recent record above 11.9 million ETH.
Perpetual funding rates for most major tokens remain marginally positive in a sign of cautiously bullish sentiment.
On Deribit, BTC's short and near-dated calls are now trading at par or a slight premium to puts, another sign of renewed bullishness. ETH puts, however, continue to trade at a premium to calls.
Block options flows have been muted on Paradigm, with calendar spreads and April put spreads lifted in BTC and ETH.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.45% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $88,539.04 (24hrs: +1.16%)
ETH is up 3.43% at $1,628.60 (24hrs: -0.84%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.49% at 2,544.64 (24hrs: -0.3%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.98%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0058% (-2.1353% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.1% at 98.38
Gold is up 4.28% at $3,456.97/oz
Silver is up 0.5% at $32.57/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -0.17% at 34,220.60
Hang Seng closed +0.78% at 21,562.32
FTSE is up 0.49% at 8,315.81
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.28% at 4,922.48
DJIA closed on Monday -2.48% at 38,170.41
S&P 500 closed -2.36% at 5,158.20
Nasdaq closed -2.55% at 15,870.90
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.76% at 24,008.86
S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,384.47
U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.42%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.98% at 5,235.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.02% at 18,105.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.87% at 38,660.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 64.39% (-0.09%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01839 (1.88%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 840 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $45.0 PH/s
Total Fees: 6.56BTC / $572,645
CME Futures Open Interest: 139,765 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 25.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 7.22%
Technical Analysis
If you feel gold's rally is overstretched or overdone, think again.
The ratio between gold's spot price and its 200-day simple moving average, currently 1.3, is well below highs seen in 2011-2012 when the yellow metal rose to its then-record price of $2,000.
The ratio went as high as 5.80 in the 1980.
Bitcoin tends to follow gold with a lag of couple of months.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $317.76 +0.18%), up 2.02% at $324.19 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $175 (-0.02%), up 1% at $176.75
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$15.38 (+0.13%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.29 (-2.92%), up 2.36% at $12.59
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $6.29 (-2.63%), up 2.07% at $6.42
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $6.39 (-3.62%)
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.47 (-0.53%), up 2.68% at $7.67
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $11.74 (-2.49%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.83 (-8.17%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $36.59 (+0.03%), unchanged in pre-market
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily net flow: $381.3 million
Cumulative net flows: $35.86 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily net flow: -$25.4 million
Cumulative net flows: $2.24 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.30 million
Source:
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The chart shows the price of eggs in the U.S. has increased by over 200% since 2024, outperforming BTC's 100% surge. Gold and the S&P 500 have gained 46% and 21%, respectively, over the same period.
In other words, asset price growth has failed to compensate holders for the inflation on Main Street.
While You Were Sleeping
(CoinDesk): Preference for BTC and euro call options over dollar exposure suggests investors are rotating out of U.S. assets and into bitcoin, the euro and gold.
(The Wall Street Journal): Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, said the Trump administration’s policies have made the U.S. economy increasingly unstable and difficult to gauge, deterring investment.
(CoinDesk): Behavioral aspects of trading could influence whether bitcoin rallies further or faces a new downturn from the resistance zone.
(Bloomberg): Despite widespread bets against the dollar, steady demand for Treasuries and technical signals suggest a rebound is likely, though gains may be limited or short-lived if negative news continues.
(Financial Times): Much of Japan’s selling likely involves U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the U.S. government, said Tomoaki Shishido, senior rates strategist at Nomura.
(CoinDesk): Bitcoin dominance rose to 64.6%, the highest since January 2021, as ether slumped and the ETH-to-BTC ratio fell to a five-year low of 0.01765.
