Bitcoin US vs. offshore exchange ratio flashes bullish signal, hinting at BTC price highs in 2025
US-based crypto trading platforms regaining influence over Bitcoin’s token transfer volumes could possibly kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr out that the "US vs. off-shore ratio," which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, indicated a drop in dominance from US exchanges after BTC reached an all-time high in January.
Bitcoin total transferred ratio chart (US vs off-shore). Source: X.com
As illustrated in the chart, a trend reversal is underway, which implies BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are beginning to rise again, aligning with previous bull market rallies.
A key technical indicator in the chart is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded major price rallies. For example, when this signal occurred at $60,000, Bitcoin began a rally within one week. This suggests a potential price surge may occur in the coming weeks.
Likewise, verified onchain analyst Boris Vest said Bitcoin is still undervalued. In a quick take post on CryptoQuant, the analyst that Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to 2018 levels, with only 2.43 million BTC held on exchanges compared to 3.4 million in 2021, indicating long-term holding and reduced supply.
The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) at 14.3 highlighted that significant purchasing power remains, as the ratio is below 2021 levels. Boris said,
“Since it hasn't yet reached 2021 levels, we can say that Bitcoin still appears to be undervalued. This suggests the bull market and buying pressure are likely to continue.”
Bitcoin flips key monthly indicator, opening a path to $90K
Markets analyst Dom that Bitcoin’s recent multimonth downtrend breakout coincides with BTC flipping the monthly VWAP into support for the first time since January.
Bitcoin analysis by Dom. Source: X.com
The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is a technical indicator that calculates the average price weighted by trading volume. Traders use VWAP to assess trend shifts, identify support or resistance, and gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Dom said,
“Bulls have successfully held both of these levels for 4 days now, something we haven't seen in months. A move above yesterday's high and I think BTC runs near 90k.”
However, Alphractal founder João Wedson remained cautious with Bitcoin near $86,000. He explained that waiting for a pullback if Bitcoin breaks above this level is the right approach, or bearish control might prevail. This echoes Alphractal's analysis of $86,300 as a key resistance zone with the potential of becoming a bull trap.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
