Bitcoin’s (
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops.
According to recent
Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode
Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long-term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 such addresses, according to
This divergence signals growing distribution from retail to large holders and marks potential for future price support (whales tend to hold long-time). Oftentimes, it also precedes bullish periods.
The last time mega-whales hit a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC raced to $108,000.
BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
Short-term holders, usually defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They're more prone to selling during corrections or periods of uncertainty.
This behavior also follows a pattern. Glassnode data shows that spending levels tend to rise and fall approximately every 8 to 12 months.
Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite the turbulent macro environment. This suggests that so far, many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if the Bitcoin price drops further, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.
BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode
Markets are driven by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. This is why we often see familiar patterns: bubbles inflate as greed takes hold, then collapse under the weight of panic selling.
CoinMarketCap’s
Since February, market sentiment has remained in the fear and extreme fear territory, now worsened by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the collapse in global stock market prices. However, human psychology is cyclical, and the market might see a potential return to a “neutral” sentiment within the next 1-3 months.
Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of market cycles is how they can become self-fulfilling. When enough people believe in a pattern, they start acting on it, taking profits at expected peaks and buying dips at expected bottoms. This collective behavior reinforces the cycle and adds to its persistence.
Bitcoin is a prime example. Its cycles may not run on precise schedules, but they rhyme consistently enough to shape expectations — and, in turn, influence reality.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.